The upward trend in oil prices noticed since last February (+12.7%), associated with the rebound in the prices of imported agricultural commodities, would, however, be likely to accelerate the rate of growth of inflation in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, said the HCP in a note on the evolution of consumer prices during the year 2020 and its outlook during the first half of the year 2021, taking into account the impact of an upward reversal in the prices of oil and other raw materials, particularly agricultural ones, on the international market.

The note also highlighted that the increases in the prices of edible oils and other food products such as cereals are due to the increase in the prices of raw materials on the international market.

It added that the consumption expenditure for edible oil represents 1.7% of the overall index and that for bread and cereals 7.07%. At the end of February 2021, the world price of sunflower and soybean oil rose, respectively, by 9.2% and 25.8%, instead of +11.2% and +9.4% during the whole year of 2020. The price of maize has increased by 40.9%, against -2.7% in 2020 and that of wheat by +13.6%, instead of +7.8% for the whole of 2020.

Rising commodity prices are likely to include red meat, noted the HCP, adding that nearly 87% of animal feed and fattening is made up of corn, barley and soybean, products imported from abroad.

Eggs and white meats are also likely to suffer the consequences of this increase in raw materials because, like the red meat industry, poultry feed depends mostly on imported composite products.

However, inflationary risks "would remain limited in the short term", said the HCP, indicating that the rise in the prices of imported raw materials would be somewhat attenuated by the appreciation of the dirham against the dollar (-6.3% in January 2021, instead of -1.3% in 2020). For its part, the prospect of a good crop year after two successive years of drought and the low pressures emanating from demand would be likely to keep the rate of inflation during the year 2021 at moderate levels.

In Q2-2021, the inflation rate should accelerate to 1.2%, instead of 0.1% in the first quarter, driven in particular by the 2% rebound in consumer prices for non-food products, instead of +0.9% a quarter earlier.