"Although the Moroccan economy exhibits some signs of recovery, the situation remains fragile given that epidemiological trends are worse now than they were during the first wave of contagions.

In this uncertain context, we expect real GDP to contract by 6.3% in 2020, and to return to its pre-pandemic level only in 2022," Diaz Cassou said at a round-table discussion dedicated to the presentation of the "Morocco Economic Monitor - From relief to recovery" report.

According to him, the COVID-19 pandemic has abruptly interrupted more than two decades of sustained socio-economic progress in Morocco.

"In 2020 the country will suffer its first recession since mid-1990s, and the economic contraction registered in the second quarter is the largest on record," he observed.

For the economist, this is the result of the combined supply, demand and external shocks triggered by the pandemic, but also of the effects of adverse weather conditions on agricultural output.

The crisis is having a severe impact on jobs and household incomes, generating a spike in unemployment and a deterioration of poverty and vulnerability indicators, he added.

Diaz Cassou pointed out that in much of the world, the current crisis will lead to a considerable increase in indebtedness that could increase to 7.8% of GDP in 2020 while public debt could reach 76% of GDP.

Despite the severity of the crisis, Morocco is better placed than other emerging economies to weather this storm thanks to the credibility of its macro-fiscal framework, to its relatively large external buffers and to its good access to international financial markets, said the economist, co-author of the report.

The Morocco Economic Monitor is a semi-annual report from the World Bank's economic team on recent economic developments and economic policies. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to the business environment and private sector development.