"The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should record a 4.4% growth in 2021 after a 5.8% regression expected in 2020", said the HCP, which has published the exploratory economic budget 2021.

In nominal terms, GDP is expected to grow by 5.6% next year, according to the same source, pointing out that this development points to a slight increase in inflation, measured by the GDP deflator, of 1.2% in 2021.

Economic growth should thus be sustained in 2021 by the recovery of domestic demand, which is expected to contribute 4.8 points to economic growth, at a time when the contribution of external demand should remain negative with -0.4 points, which is an improvement compared to -1.4 points in 2020, the HCP pointed out.

This exploratory economic budget also indicated that the primary sector should grow by 9.1% in 2021 instead of the 5.7% decline expected in 2020. Non-agricultural activities should record a moderate growth rate of 3.6% in 2021 after a 5.3% drop in 2020, due in particular to "the expected timid recovery of the services and building and public works sectors as well as processing industries".

As far as public finances are concerned, their evolution over the next year presupposes an increase in public expenditure, linked to the measures needed to stimulate and revive economic activity, which in turn should lead to an improvement in tax revenues.

Under these conditions, the budget deficit would be 5% of GDP in 2021 instead of the 7.4% expected in 2020. To cover this financing need, Morocco would have to make a new exit on the international market.

The economic outlook established for the year 2021 assumes the end of the pandemic of the novel coronavirus (covid-19) in December 2020 and is based on an average scenario of agricultural production during the 2020/2021 season. These forecasts also take into consideration the new trends of the international environment, in particular the evolution of raw material prices and global demand addressed to Morocco.